Hopefully, this week’s slate of games will serve merely as entertainment, because life is too informative post fragile to stress about bets won or bets lost. The Chiefs defense has struggled significantly against the run this season, allowing 133 yards per game on the ground as one of the bottom six-run defenses in the league. Rest assured, Tennessee is going to attack with a heavy dose of running back Derrick Henry, who continues to post huge numbers every week. I don’t expect the Chiefs to stop Henry and would not be surprised if DC Steve Spagnuolo puts heavy focus on the run defense with extra personnel.
Head coach Andy Reid needs his defense to step up and deliver. The Chiefs’ offense is second in the NFL in scoring (29.6 points per game), but the defense gave up 31 in its loss to Oakland and 34 in its last victory over Houston. Super Bowl contenders do not normally give up 23 points per game as the Chiefs are currently. Detroit will play host to the Steelers, a winner over AFC North foe Cincinnati last week. Bell ran for 134 yards in the win over Cincinnati, Brown caught a touchdown, and Roethlisberger threw a pair of scoring passes.
The closest that Baltimore may have come to a Saints-like offense is Cincinnati. The Ravens look at this website also lost to Cleveland 12-9 when Browns QB Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards. While the Ravens are good on defense, they have been exploited by good quarterbacks. While the Kansas City offense can score, the defense does give up plenty of yard and points. Like Cincinnati, the Chiefs are not very good against the pass.
The Jets’ defense came through in a way they haven’t too often as they held the Rams to just 2 for 11 on third downs. Jared Goff was inefficient and finished with a gross QBR of 18.7. Sam Darnold completed 22 of 31 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a QBR of 88.5. However, that the Jets racked up 23 points on the road against the Rams, who allow 19.2 points per game, the third-fewest, is very impressive. The Browns are allowing 26.7 points per game, the tenth-most in the NFL, so New York could keep their offense flowing this week. On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield has PFF’s second-best rating over the past nine weeks and has been incredibly efficient this season.
The NFL consensus provides bettors an indication of how much action sportsbooks are seeing on either side of an NFL matchup. An example would be viewing the betting public picks above and seeing the Chiefs -3 over the TB Bucs getting 71% of the action at DraftKings. The public is heavily backing the Chiefs, while only 29% percent of bettors are backing the underdog Bucs at +3. A simple football handicapping strategy would be to “fade the public” and bet the Bucs plus the points.
And the Bengals appear healthier, especially with Baker Mayfield appearing to be nursing shoulder and rib injuries. The market remains skeptical, but Arizona has done enough to merit more of a positive adjustment than it’s received. It wasn’t until about an hour after the game that I faintly recalled betting the Texans in person earlier in the week to secure a better number.
In addition to the amazing offensive performance the defense showed up in a big way shutting down the Dolphins offense and making them look inept at times. Two teams that were supposed to be defensive power houses entering the 2019 season and only one has shown to be the real deal thus far. The Bears basically shutdown Aaron Rodgers to open the season on Thursday night football, but the Packers still pulled out a late win against what’s sure to be a dominant Chicago defense this year.